Analysis of Fertility in China

China, one of the most famous country for anti-nationalist policy for fertility rate. Also the most populated country in the world, now China has more than 1.3 million population. After the Communist Revolution in 1949, population growth was encouraged by the government, for economic, military, and strategic reason. Families receives benefits payment for every child. However, government once worried about the pressure on food supply by 1954, when population reached to 600 million. Government introduced their first birth control program in 1956, but it only last for 2 years. By 1958 the "Great Leap Forward" began, government is now concerned the possibility of labour shortage, so birth was encouraged once again. Due to the rapid industrialisation occurred in 1958, agriculture relatively ignored during the process of pursuing industrialisation, this caused famine later in 1962, 20 million deaths were counted. Government later in 1964 came up the thoughts of birth control program, which later become "One Child Policy" in 1970s. Due to the famine, China's population growth gone rapidly, peaked at 45 births per 1000 population.

When "One Child Policy" introduced by the government in 1970s, which is still going on now, it has considerably influenced the gender ratio. "One Child Policy" was designed to decrease population growth, but it brings to the other social problem, birth in China was 119 boys to 100 girls, compares to the natural rate 106:100 ratio, it shows definitely boys are over-populated. This is likely to multiply in the future, also the recent technology enhanced the issue of gender unbalance for new-born. The selective abortion, parent's are allowed to see their unborn child's gender this allows parents to choose their child's gender easier than before. Consequences the increase in gap between boys and girls of new born child.

Due to the social issue of of gender unbalance of new born child, and the prediction population in the future (the graph below, which would likely become ageing population), government have now introduced that if both parents are from 1 child family can now have two children, also known as "Two Child Policy". "One Child Policy" created 1:2:4 ratio, one child, 2 parents, 4 grandparents. This cause all the adults' focus towards the child. However, the recent rising problem is that most parents would not like to have a 2nd child even they are allowed to. The biggest reason is the child don't want to have a little brother or sister, simply adults will focus on them less and feelings of jealous, and economical pressure on parents. Once they have 2nd child in their family, the cost of living increase, the economical pressure increases as well. Also, the thoughts of quality education is valued nowadays in China, having 2nd child will decrease the quality of education, due to the less money can be spend on each child in the family.

Ever since "Two Child Policy" introduced by the government, due to the unwillingness of parents having the 2nd child, it's effectiveness have been doubted by the people. From the graph above it has been predicted by the time about 2025-2030, the crude death rate and crude birth rate will reach it's equilibrium point, while the crude birth rate will continue to decrease and crude death rate continuously increase. "Two Child Policy" introduced not long ago, it would be too early to determine it's effectiveness, hopefully by the year 2030 the effectiveness of "Two Child Policy" may be seen.